But of course, there’s another way we can do this. As it happens, there is a good old-fashioned stock market stock market game known as a “predictable market.” It’s a game where you can get your money off the stocks you don’t want to sell by making some bets. But the rules are a bit trickier than a simple binary bet on which market you will win.
A “predictable market” is different from a market based on your own predictions of what will happen. Instead, you are trying to predict how markets will change over time. You’re trying to predict which stocks you’ll buy or sell in the coming year. It’s a much more complicated game when all you have to predict are the future prospects of a group of stocks that represent a group of companies you know well. A great example of a prediction market, one of the most common stocks I’ve talked about on This Week In Finance recently, was Citigroup.
Because of its huge size, and because it’s one of the biggest corporations on Wall Street, you could almost call it the “corporate gold” of the market. And it doesn’t mean that there is any likelihood that the stock will drop any time soon. I can’t take credit for having figured out these amazing stock market predictions, because in fact, it’s really someone else who did it. It was done by two Yale professors named Mark Lecce, and Daniel Loeb.
Lecce, a brilliant, smart guy, writes the Bloomberg terminal for many investors, and he was one of the original “predictable market pioneers.” He and Loeb have made similar “predictable market” predictions time and time again. What’s more, Lecce and Loeb have a fascinating little book on their website of their amazing research called Predictable Market: How to Spot & Profit from Market Tricks and Opportunities.
To play a good prediction market, you need to do two things. First, you need to have the right data. I’m sure you already have plenty of it, but I’ll tell you what it means in concrete terms. You need to know:
The stock market is in what economists call a “long-term trend equilibrium.” The more data that you already have about the company, the more accurate you can be at buying or selling the stock based on those underlying fundamentals. This means that when you’re buying or selling the stock, you need to use this information to
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